Risk Disclaimer

Preduck Terminal is a read-only aggregation and analytics terminal. It reads publicly available market data from third-party venues and presents it in a unified form.

We do not:

• hold, custody, transmit or have access to your funds;
• execute, route, match or broker any order;
• operate a market, exchange or trading facility;
• offer, solicit or recommend any contract, security or swap.

Links to Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid open those venues' own interfaces. Any trade you place happens entirely on that venue, under that venue's terms, and we are not a party to it.

Preduck Labs Ltd. is not registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, the National Futures Association, or any equivalent authority in any jurisdiction. We are not a broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, investment adviser, or commodity trading advisor.

The terminal computes cross-venue pairs and labels some of them ARBITRAGE with a “locked yield” figure. That calculation assumes you can fill both legs, simultaneously, at the quoted prices, in the quoted size. In practice you frequently cannot. Specific reasons an apparent edge may not exist:

• Stale quotes. Prices are snapshots. The book can move between the moment we read it and the moment you act.
• Insufficient depth. A quote at the touch may represent a handful of contracts. Sizing into it moves the price against you.
• Fees. We estimate published taker fees, but not gas, funding, withdrawal, spread, conversion or slippage costs.
• Settlement differences. Two contracts on the same subject can resolve at different times or under different rules, in which case the pair is not hedged at all. We flag detected mismatches, but our detection is not exhaustive.
• Capital and access constraints. Both venues must be available to you, funded, and permitted in your jurisdiction.

Where a pair is not genuinely risk-free, the terminal labels it CORRELATED or attaches a warning. Read those warnings.

Hyperliquid does not list prediction contracts. For crypto threshold markets we derive an implied probability from its perpetual futures mark using a digital-option model (N(d₂)) and realized volatility from its own candles.

These quotes are marked derived throughout the interface and are model output, not resting orders. Nobody is offering to trade at them. They exist to show where a model disagrees with a market, and the model's assumptions — lognormal returns, constant volatility, no drift — are known to be wrong in the tails.

Venues phrase the same claim differently. We match them with rule-based signatures and fuzzy text similarity, and we show a match-confidence score where confidence is below certainty. Matching can still be incorrect. Before treating two contracts as equivalent, read both venues' resolution criteria yourself — including the settlement source, timing and edge-case handling.

Data is supplied by third parties and is provided as is. It may be delayed, interrupted, incomplete or wrong. Venue APIs change without notice, rate-limit us, or go down. We make no warranty as to accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for any purpose, and we are not liable for decisions made in reliance on it.

Prediction markets are regulated differently across jurisdictions, and some venues are unavailable or unlawful in certain territories. Displaying a market here is not a representation that you are permitted to trade it. Determining your own eligibility is your responsibility.

Reach us at contact@preduck.com. See also our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.